I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.
But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are running and not running; and where the Republicans are running and not running (I am not going to look in detail at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)
This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU, and informed by the great Race Tracker Wiki (links throughout).
crossposted to dailyKos
The next two states to have filing deadlines are OH and TX. Today, I am doing TX. I did OH on Dec 30, more to follow (and I will go back and do the states that already passed their filing deadlines).
The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics
One note TX has been redrawn again, and my model numbers are for the old districts. No way to fix this that I know of.
Texas has 32 Congressional House districts. 13 are held by Democrats of which 11 have officially filed as follows:
Confirmed
district Cook Prob Repub Incumbent Challenger? rating
TX-09 D+21 3 Green Yes safe Dem.
TX-15 D+ 3 37 Hinojosa No
TX-16 D+9 29 Reyes No
TX-17 R+18 55 Edwards No
TX-22 R+15 43 Lampson Yes fairly safe, rerun
TX-23 R+4 47 Rodriguez unclear
TX-25 D+1 49 Doggett No
TX-27 R+1 35 Ortiz No
TX-28 R+1 42 Cuellar No
TX-29 D+8 24 Green Yes safe, rerun
TX-30 D+26 12 Johnson No
The following 2 Democratic incumbents haven’t filed yet but are expected to do so.
TX-18 D+23 8 Lee No
TX-20 D+8 25 Gonzalez No
So, there are confirmed challengers in only 3 Democratic districts, all of which look pretty safe, and two of which are re-runs of 2006.
I give more details on the following, 19 Republican held seats; first the 10 of these have filed candidates:
TX03 R+17 .42.
This district is northern Dallas, and also Plano and Garland.
Sam Johnson was first elected in 1991. He has had no close races since his first one. Ron Minkow and Thomas Daley are running against him, and a couple other people might, but this has to be called a longshot.
TX-06 R+15, .47
This district spreads southeastward from the western part of Ft Worth, running about 150 miles through Corsicanna and Waxahachie
Joe Barton, first elected in 1984, may be slightly mroe vulnerable than his relatively easy wins show. In 2006, David Harris got 37% of the vote with only $27,000 (he was out-funded almost 100-1!)
Steve Bush is running as a Democrat, hey, his name is Bush! That’s probably going to convince a couple Republicans….. well… maybe.
TX-07 R+16 .45
The 7th runs roughly northwestward from the western suburbs of Houston, but it’s shaped sort of like a Z, so it’s hard to describe.
John Culbertson was first elected in 2000. In 2004, he got just about as many votes as Bush, despite out-raising his opponent 30-1. In 2006, Jim Henley raised about $122,000 and got 38%.
James Henley is running again, as is Michael Skelly.
TX-10 R+13, .57
The 10th runs from eastern Austin to western Houston.
Michael McCool was first elected in 2004. In 2006, Ted Ankrum got 40% of the vote with only $55,000 in funding.
In 2008, there are at least two challenger: Larry Joe Doherty and Dan Grant, and each seems to have already raised more than that.
TX-12 R+14 .49
The 12th is a large district to the west and northwest of Ft. Worth
Granger was first elected in 1996. None of her races have been close, and Granger did better than Bush in 2004.
Tracey Smith is running in 2008.
TX-13 R+18 .52
The 13th is 40,000 sq miles mostly along the borders with OK and NM, including Amarillo.
Thornberry was first elected in 1994, and has not been seriously challenged. In 2006, Roger Waun got 23% of the vote, with only $27,000.
Waun is running again
TX-19 R+25, .48
The 19th is shaped sort of like a W, or maybe a U with a hook. It runs from the NM border to the middle of TX, including Lubbock and Abilene.
Neugebauer was first elected in 2003. In 2004 he beat Stenholm 58-40, in a fairly equally funded race.
Dwight Fullingim is running in 2008, and a couple others might run, as well.
TX-26 R+12 .45
The 26th is a narrow strip running north from the Dallas-FtWorth suburbs to the OK border, widening around the town of Denton.
Burgess was elected in 2002. His majorities have been decreasing:
2002 – 75%, 2004 – 66%, 2006 – 60%, all against opponents with almost no funds (in 2006, his opponent (Barnwell) got 37% with only $16,000).
Ken Leach is running against Burgess in 2008.
TX-31 R+15 0.49
The 31st runs northwest from the northern suburbs of Austin.
Carter, first elected in 2002, was in a relatively close race in 2006; he won 58-39 against Mary Beth Harrell, who was outspent more than 4-1.
In 2008, the challenger is Brian Ruiz.
TX-32 R+11 .34
The 32nd is a ridiculously shaped district that includes the area between Ft. Worth and Dallas, and also North Dallas and University Park, and extends out to Ricardson.
Sessions, first elected in 1996, was in one of the most expensive races in 2004 (each candidate spent around $4.5 million) – he won, 54-44, doing considerably worse than Bush. In 2006, Will Pryor did almost as well, getting 41% while raising only half a million.
In 2008 Steve Love is running, as is Eric Roberson.
4 further districts have confirmed candidates that are yet to file officially:
TX-04 R+17 .70
The 4th is the northeast corner of TX, mostly bordering OK and AR. (It’s one of the few districts in TX that is pretty much a rectangle!)
Hall was first elected in 1980, and he’s getting old (he will turn 85 in May). He’s won easily against underfunded opponents, but in 2006, Glenn Melancon got 33% of the vote with only 64,000.
Melancon is running again, but first Hall has to survive a primary.
TX-08 R+20 .74
The 8th is on the eastern part of TX, right around where TX is widest. It borders LA.
Brady was first elected in 1996. He has won easily, the last two times against Jim Wright (Wright got 30% in 2004 and 33% in 2006, both times with very little money).
Wright is running again.
TX-11 R+25 .54
The 11th runs from the eastern suburbs of Austin to the NM border, including Odessa, Midland, and San Angelo.
Conaway was first elected in 2004, and was unopposed in 2006.
Floyd Crider is running in 2008.
TX-24 R+15 .43
The 24th is a bizarrely shaped district, mostly in between Dallas and Ft. Worth.
Marchant, first elected in 2004, has won easily against Gary Page (twice), although Page got very little money.
This year, Tom Love is running
And two further districts have unconfirmed candidates:
TX-05 R+16 .57
The fifth is another bizarre district….it sort of looks like California, with Nevada on the side. It includes both Palestine and Athens….and stretches southeast from Dallas
Hensarling was first elected in 2002 and has won easily against almost unfunded opposition; in 2006, Thompson got 36% with only $20,000
TX-21 R+13 .58
The 21st is yet another oddly shaped district, mostly to the north and west of San Antonio.
Smith was first elected in 1986. He has won easily. This district was redrawn for 2006.
That leaves 3 districts with no candidate!
And here they are:
TX-01 R+17 .59
The first is along the eastern edge of TX, bordering LA and a tiny bit of AK.
Gohmert was first elected in 2004. He has won easily, but no more easily than a lot of other TX Repubs. I can’t say it’s likely we would win, but I can’t see why we aren’t challenging.
TX-02 R+12 .47
The 2nd is another bizarrely shaped district; most of the people live in or near Beaumont.
Poe was first elected in 2004. In the nebulous world of TX redistricting, his opponent in 2004 was Nick Lampson, who is now the rep. from the 22nd, which doesn’t even border the current 2nd.
Conrad Allen announced that he was forming an exploratory committee, set up a campaign website (now defunct) and disappeared off the face of the earth.
TX-14 R+14 .56
The 14th may be the most bizarre of all the bizarrely shaped districts. It runs along the gulf of Mexico, mostly south of Galveston, but it’s sort of interrupted by a bunch of other districts.
This bizarrely shaped district has a bizarre rep, even for Texas: Ron Paul.
We had a candidate then he switched parties!
summary
Well….
Currently Total Confirmed challenger %
Democratic 13 3 24
Republican 19 14 74
TX sure is confusing….
When Tom DeLay and his gang did their mid-decade 2003 redistricting, they had two aims. One was to elect more Repubs to the House, of course.
The other goal was to give the Democratic Party in Texas a colored face by purging 'Anglos' (what we call non-Hispanic white folks in Texas) from the state Congressional delegation, leaving only black and brown faces. DeLay figured that making the Repubs the party of whites would guarantee dominance for years.
So all across the state, black and Hispanic neighborhoods were carved out of districts represented by Anglo Democrats. In Houston and Dallas-Ft. Worth the resulting majority-black districts came out with demographics like those of the Bantu homelands in apartheid South Africa. The surrounding districts, as a result, where even whiter than white and ever so Repub in their voting.
In addition, the 2003 lines were contorted so that old-line Dems, most but not all blue dogs, found themselves in basically new districts, where they hadn't represented most of the voters before, eliminating the usual incumbent advantage
Of the Texas Five targetted, only Chet Edwards survived the bloodbath. DINO Ralph Hall had already switched parties. So the Repubs had a net gain of five House votes — or more.
The Repubs really gained five and a half members. The same redrawing created new lines that led directly to the primary defeat of Ciro Rodriguez by DINO Henry Cuellar, who's been Bush's favorite Dem House member.
It's been delicious revenge to see our Anglo Dems survive, and the party make an accelerating comeback.
DeLay's gang hoped the district won by the Anglo Dem Lloyd Doggett was going to be taken by a Hispanic. But the Hispanics in the far South Texas reaches of his district liked his progressive, liberal message. He survived, and, after another special redistricting, he's safe in an Austin-based district of liberal Anglos.
Chet Edwards has now won twice in a sprawling rural and small-town district, against well-funded Repub challengers.
Gene Green kept his seat in a heavily union and minority Houston district.
Best of all, DeLay was indicted and had to leave the House to work on his defense with his lawyer. So Nick Lampson, who'd lost a seat next door in the Houston area, was able to win in DeLay's own district.
So we have some Anglo Dems in D.C. despite all.
Not to forget that the Supreme Court conceded that DeLay's racial redistricting violated the Voting Rights Act in at least one area. As a result, a panel of judges redrew the lines of TX-23 (and four nearby districts), which allowed Ciro Rodriguez to win in the new district.
The loss by Henry Bonilla, the Repub incumbent in that seat defeated by Ciro, is almost symbolic of the failure of DeLay's racist plan. DeLay and Rove had figured that they could convert the Democrats into the party of the minorities, and then try to lure the Hispanics away from the blacks and into the Repub party. With Bonilla gone, Hispanic Repub office-holders are few in TX, and after the racism exposed in the debate over Immigration laws, Hispanic Repub voters are getting fewer too.
Meanwhile the Texas Lege, which was redistricted in much the same racial way, has seen a gradual and growing resurgence by Dems, who are now only five seats shy of a majority in the Texas House. Redistricting after 2010 should give a completely different look to the Lege and to our Congressional delegation.
Does anyone know what will happen in TX-14?
The incumbent is running for the Repub Presidential nomination, of course. And he's not being treated nicely by that party. Could that help to provoke him to run for President as the nominee of the Libertarian Party once again? I sincerely hope so! I think he'd drain away votes from every possible Repub candidate.
So Ron Paul could resign or decline to run for reelection and leave his House seat open. Or not.
The filing deadline is near, so we'll soon know if he intends to run for both reelection and for president as a Republican. Under a law passed for LBJ in 1960, he could do it, if he won the nomination.
With the funds he has accumulated, and the fun he's having stirring things up and getting famous, Paul could stay in the Repub presidential race until the Convention. Well, if so, he'll be facing a challenger or two in the Repub primary for TX-14.
I don't pretend to understand the mind of the Repub voter, so I dunno if Paul would be weakened by his presidential candidacy going into that House primary or not.
But Paul has another option, if I understand correctly. He could run for reelection to the House as a Libertarian. (The party has some flexibility in getting him on the GE ballot long after the primary filing deadlines.) In fact, I think he could run for reelection to the House and for President as a Libertarian.
Whatever Paul does next would seem to open a nice opportunity for us, an open seat, or a semi-open seat with a three-way race! (And as entertaining as a three-ring circus!)
Unfortunately, the Democrats in this area seem exhausted. In '06 we had a fine candidate in Sid Sklar, a former aide to Chet Edwards and a gonna-be blue dog for this deeply conservative district, who is a young, good-looking, boots-wearing, third-generation rancher. But Sklar only got 40% of the vote despite a good effort, and he's declined to run again this year. If there's a Democrat fixing to make this race, I don't know who.
Well, no biggie, it's only two more terms. My fearless forecast is that this district will be chopped up in the next redistricting. The Repubs have no need or desire to protect Paul, who has violated their authoritarian rules of obedience and conformity. And anyone elected this year will be the most junior and most expendible in the delegation.
The lower part of TX-14 around Victoria may get annexed by Borderland South Texas — Corpus Christi, the Valley, San Antonio — a region where the Hispanics expect to get a couple more majority-minority seats. Lots of lines will get changed when all that furniture is moved.
The upper part around Galveston belongs to the Houston metro, which will also likely gain a seat, probably requiring a clean sheet of paper to do that map.
If the Democrats can take control of the lower house of the Lege, then either (a) the Repubs get humility and learn to compromise (yeah, fat chance of that), or, more likely (b) the parties stalemate and the matter goes to the courts. Either way, it's gonna be bye-bye to Ron Paul and TX-14 as we know it in 2012.
Great job.
Sheila Jackson Lee and Charles Gonzalez filed at the county level. The state party’s spreadsheet for county filings is about two weeks behind so one has to look through the more populous counties like Harris, Dallas, and Bexar separately. Dallas County Democrats, IIRC, actually require an ID to look at filings. By contrast, the state’s Republicans post one nice, easy to use master list that appears to be up to date (and a link to the Democratic lists as well through their web site).
Another Democratic candidate in TX-19 is Rufus Mark.